OUTS AND CHANCE OF HITTING
The following table gives your percentage chance of hitting, either from flop or on the turn, given each certain number of outs. Note that without knowing your opponents cards this isn't always your chance of winning, as they may have redraws or your might not have as many outs as you think.
Notice that for single figure outs there is an easy way of checking your % of hitting - on flop, to hit on turn or river, multiply your outs by 4, and on the turn to hit on river, multiply by 2. This will give you within 1% of your actual odds. For double figure outs, this gives a slightly high figure.
The method for calculating the figures for this table is given below.
| outs | situation | on flop | on turn |
| 1 | 4.26% | 2.17% | |
| 2 | pair vs overpair | 8.42% | 4.35% |
| 3 | Ax v AK etc | 12.49% | 6.52% |
| 4 | gutshot | 16.47% | 8.70% |
| 5 | 20.35% | 10.87% | |
| 6 | 2 overcards v pair | 24.14% | 13.04% |
| 7 | 27.84% | 15.22% | |
| 8 | open ended | 31.45% | 17.39% |
| 9 | flush draw | 34.97% | 19.57% |
| 10 | 38.39% | 21.74% | |
| 11 | 41.72% | 23.91% | |
| 12 | gutshot and flush draw | 44.96% | 26.09% |
| 13 | 48.10% | 28.26% | |
| 14 | 51.16% | 30.43% | |
| 15 | open ended str8 flush draw | 54.12% | 32.61% |
| 16 | 56.98% | 34.78% | |
| 17 | 59.76% | 36.96% | |
| 18 | 62.44% | 39.13% |
On the flop, we have 5 known cards, (2 in your hand, 3 on the flop), and 47 unknown. To find the chance of hitting, we need the chance of hitting on the turn, the chance of hitting on the river, and the chance of hitting on both. We can work this out by calculating the probability of missing on both, and subtracting this from one.
Our probability of hitting on either turn, river, or both, is therefore:
1 - ( ( (47-outs)/47 ) * ( (46-outs)/46 ) )
miss on turn miss on river
multiplying this figure by 100 gives us our percentage.
To hit on the river, we have 46 unkown cards, and only one chance to hit, so our % chance of hitting is simpler:
( outs / 46 ) * 100
print version